How to Measure Competition Difficulty:

The Rogue Invitational

Intro:

Ever since I embarked on measuring athlete performance to predict future outcomes, one question has given me a lot of turmoil: how difficult or dense is the field of athletes at any competition? Well, I originally came out with a measurement in April of 2022. I presented the idea of using Performance Rate to come up with a “Relative Strength Index” for a competition in this issue of the Morning Chalk Up. But the longer I sat with it the more dissatisfied I became. I wanted a measure to be able to express something we all wonder; how difficult is this field in comparison to the field of athletes at the CrossFit Games. 

For this article I have teamed up with up-and-coming CrossFit Analyst Barclay Dale. We both have different ways of looking at the sport. In this article and another we will cover how we measure “Relative Strength” of a competition and how you can use it to predict how athletes will place in a competition. 

The Watkins Method:

My method is simple. We start with Quarterfinals rankings. Quarterfinals is the only stage that offers quality and universally comparable data on athlete performance. We could stop here and use this as our base for building a Relative Strength Index. I think it's important to then again consider how an athlete places in the CrossFit Games.

The next step is to take any athlete who placed 20th or better in the CrossFit Games and replace their Quarterfinals Ranking with that. Why 20th? This is where my opinion comes in. To me 30th to 40th at the Games could be replaced by a field of athletes who could perform the same or better. I take that limit up to 20 to account for the athletes who qualify from easier regions like South America. 

Now that we have a list and rankings of athletes we can use that ranking to tie them to a strength. Let's start with the top 5. Medieros, Khrennikov, Garard, Kwant, and Adler all receive a strength of 100. We would move down the list to the following athletes who are handed out a “Relative Strength Index” based on their Games/QF Ranking. For a full list see this sheet. Below shows the snapshot for the athletes at the Rogue Invitational. 

The tables above show the fields for the Men and Women. Beside their names you can see each athlete's “Relative Strength Index.” These indexes are accumulated to produce a sum for the competition. Below that sum you can see a “Games Equivalent” number. This number indicated the optimal sum if all of the athletes at the games were present per number of athlete spots. For 20 spots, the strength sum for the Games is 1970. The competition sum is divided by the Games Equivalent to produce what we are after; a Relative Strength Index for the competition.

For the Rogue Invitational you can see that the men's field has a Relative Strength Index of 98.83% and the Women have a RSI of 97.01%. To put this differently, the men's field is 98.83% as strong as the field present at the games. 

Top Tier Athletes:

For the Men, all five of the top five at the games are present. It’s pretty locked down. One note here explains the red number next to Chandler Smith. Chandler was in 4th the 2022 Individual Quarterfinals, which earned him a Relative Strength Index of 100. Smith stumbled during the Semifinals at the Granite Games due to what seemed to be chronic Asthma attacks. We can't assume he would have been top 5 at the CrossFit Games. I assumed he would have been between 10th and 15th, thus earning him an index of 98.

For the Women, two of the top 5 from the Games are missing: Tia Toomey and Mallory O’Brien. This is a bulk of the reason the RSI for the women’s field is 97% as strong as the games. The RSI would actually be lower if two time champ Annie Thorisdottir had stepped up for the competition. I set her Index to 100 considering she podiumed in 2021 and looks much stronger since that season. 

As for athletes trying to squeeze into the top 5, for the men it will be nearly impossible. The only athlete who has a possibility to squeeze in would be Patrick Vellner. He has all of the tools to beat everyone in the top tier, but it is in my personal opinion that Vellner is on the decline of his career. As for the women, 2 spots are likely up for grabs in the top 5. I think these two spots will have to be battled out between three athletes: Kara Saunders, Emma Lawson, and Alexis Raptis. Kara Saunders seems to be on the same “come up” as Thorisdottir, as she is fully recovered from having a child and seems to be thoroughly enjoying training. Emma Lawson and Alexis Raptis are proven from the CrossFit Games. I think Raptis likely has the upper hand in this event due to Rogue usually programming a bit heavier and Lawson lacks top end strength. 

Second Tier Athletes:

The difference between the second tier athletes in green and the third tier athletes in yellow is truly miniscule. It's here in the middle that will be a total juggle all weekend long for both the men and women. Order will mostly depend on programming, in this case favoring stronger athletes and those confident with odd objects. 

On the men’s side I believe the 6th through 10th will be some order of the athletes in green: Patrick Vellner, Jayson Hopper, Lazar Dukic, Bjorgvin Karl Gudmunsson, and Guilherme Malheiros. Noah Ohlsen and Chandler Smith would be the most likely contenders to push into that range from outside. The dark horse pick here would be Nick Mathew. 

On the women’s side this second tier should be considered the athletes in the yellow and peach. I believe all athletes in green will be between 4th and 7th. One athlete who could make a push to the top of this second tier would be Dani Speegle. Speegle had a great showing at the games and is very well suited for the stereotypical Rogue programming. 

Closing:

Athletes I have my eyes on that are not already covered include: Jack Farlow, Ahnika Greer, and Manon Angonese. In particular, Ahnika Greer has a real opportunity here. Due to a video error in the Quarter Finals Greer was taken out of this year's competition early, thus we haven't seen what she is truly capable of. She is likely hungrier than almost any athlete on the field and has had since the Semifinals to improve all of her weaknesses. This will be a pivotal moment for the young competitor and will set the tone for her upcoming year. 

Overall, I do think my “Relative Strength Index” shows that the Rogue Invitational is the closest competition we will ever see that comes close to as dense as the CrossFit Games. For the athletes it will be the hardest competition to fight for each spot. I will continue to cover the athletes, their stats, and present methods you can use to draft and play athletes in the next edition of Lawn Chair Leaderboarding’s fantasy competition. As a sneak peak, maybe you all should practice guessing who should win each heat. That skill will come in handy soon. 

If you liked this article stay tuned for Analyst Barclay Dale’s take on how strong this year's Rogue Invitational competition is.